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Summary of macroeconomic developments with projections, April 2015

Summary of macroeconomic developments with Projections, April 2015

Macroeconomic Developments and Projections, September 2014

Macroeconomic Developments and Projections, September 2014

Macroeconomic Developments and Projections, April 2014

Macroeconomic Developments and Projections, April 2014

Macroeconomic Developments and Projections, October 2013

Macroeconomic Developments and Projections, October 2013

Macroeconomic Developments and Projections, April 2013

Macroeconomic Developments and Projections, April 2013

Review of macroeconomic developments with projections, December 2022

Review of macroeconomic developments and projections, June 2023

Review of macroeconomic developments and projections, December 2023

Review of macroeconomic developments and projections, June 2024

Governor’s statement following the ECB Governing Council’s monetary policy meeting, with commentary on the current situation

Yesterday, members of the ECB’s Governing Council discussed the latest forecasts for the euro area, which predict lower inflation and slightly slower economic growth this year compared to previous forecasts. Based on the new macroeconomic projections and the latest data, which point to the persistence of domestic inflationary pressures in the face of easing inflation, the Governing Council members decided to keep the ECB’s key interest rates unchanged.

Macroeconomic Projections for Slovenia, December 2018

Macroeconomic projections for Slovenia remain favourable. Real GDP growth is expected to be 4.2% this year, 3.4% in 2019, 3.0% in 2020 and 2.9% in 2021.

Macroeconomic developments and projections, bank performance, developments on the capital market and interest rates

Press release from the meeting of the Governing Board of the Bank of Slovenia on 15 November 2011

Press release - New Macroeconomic Projection for Slovenia and Financial Stability Review June 2017

High growth in economic activity this year and next; uncertainty regarding the evolution of the epidemic remains high

In the context of the improving epidemiological picture, Banka Slovenije expects economic growth to reach 5.2% this year and to remain high next year (4.8%). GDP is thus expected to reach the pre-crisis level already at the beginning of next year. Economic growth will be driven by both domestic and foreign demand. Inflation will also rise and remain below the medium-term target of less than 2%, but will be close to that limit. Banka Slovenije also finds that uncertainty regarding the future evolution of the epidemic remains high. Thus, in addition to the core projection, we have also drawn up alternative scenarios with the help of a healthcare expert.

Press release - Macroeconomic Forecast for Slovenia and Financial Stability Review, June 2016

Governor’s statement following the ECB’s monetary policy meeting, with commentary on the current situation

Economic activity in the euro area strengthened in the early part of this year, while inflation continued to fall. The latest projections suggest that these developments will continue over the following years. We have therefore decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, after nine months of holding them steady. Our future decisions remain dependent on the incoming data and the inflation outlook.

Press release after the Meeting of the Governing Board of the Bank of Slovenia on 29 April 2013

Stability of the Slovenian banking system confirmed in this year’s bank of Slovenia stress tests

In addition to targeted supervisory stress tests, which this year focused on liquidity risk, the Bank of Slovenia has also conducted macro stress tests this year, which aim to assess the evolution of systemic risks in the Slovenian banking system. They showed the banking system to be stable under the baseline scenario and under the adverse scenario alike.

Macroeconomic projections: Domestic factors are main drivers of economic growth in this and the next year

This year's economic growth will amount to 2.6% and next year to 2.5%. It is presumed to stay close to these levels also in 2021 and 2022. Domestic consumption will present the main driver of economic growth alongside otherwise solid growth of export. Growth of economic activity will continue to exceed average growth in the Euro area.

Governor’s statement following the ECB’s monetary policy meeting, with commentary on the current situation

The Governing Council of the ECB was briefed yesterday on the latest macroeconomic projections for the euro area. They show inflation continuing to slow and economic growth gradually recovering over the period to 2026. In these circumstances we took the decision on the Governing Council to again leave the ECB’s key interest rates unchanged. We also decided to advance the normalisation of the monetary policy securities portfolio.

Decisions adopted by the Governing Board on 8 January 2008

Somewhat favourable economic developments will continue this year, although they will be influenced by the consequences of Russian military aggression

The forecast of economic growth issued by Banka Slovenije today is marked by the consequences of Russian military aggression in Ukraine. We expect it to cause a slowdown in current activity this year, although the total annual growth will still be a high 5.8%, in particular because of the explicit statistical effect of the transfer of growth from the previous year. In the next two years annual growth will settle at 2.4% or 2.5%. The labour market, which is becoming increasingly marked by employers’ difficulties in finding workers, will also be under the influence of a rather favourable economic situation.

Press release - Summary of macroeconomic developments and bank performance in 2015

Publications

Publications

Meeting of the Governing Board of the Bank of Slovenia of 5 July 2011

Decisions adopted by the Governing Board on 1 July 2008

The Decisions adopted by the Governing Board on the occasion of its 308th regular meeting on 7 April 2005

Messages related with coronavirus

At the Bank of Slovenia we have been closely monitoring and analysing the ongoing coronavirus situation ever since the outbreak of the novel virus. In the preparation of measures we are working within ECB, cooperating with the government and with the commercial banks and other institutions.

Press release after the Meeting of the Governing Board of the Bank of Slovenia

Press release after the meeting of the Bank of Slovenia Governing Board

Press release after the Bank of Slovenia Board meeting on 4 December 2012

Meeting of the Governing Board of the Bank of Slovenia of 2 November 2011

Decisions adopted by the Governing board on the occasion of its 329th regular meeting on 6 April 2006

Stress tests confirm the stability of the Slovenian banking system; risks remain elevated

The macro stress tests conducted by Banka Slovenije have confirmed the stability of the Slovenian banking system, which has sufficient capital adequacy. Even amid the favourable results, the systemic risks to financial stability remain elevated, which is attributable to the impact of the Russian military aggression on the European economy and the resulting uncertainties.

Publications

Publications

New macroeconomic projections for Slovenia

The Bank of Slovenia has raised GDP growth forecasts. This year, it expects 4.7% GDP growth (June forecast: 3.5%) and 4.2% growth in the next year (June forecast: 3.1%), while by 2020 GDP growth is expected to gradually fall to 3, 4%.

Governor’s statement following the ECB’s monetary policy meeting, with commentary on the current situation

The euro area economy continued to cool in the final quarter of last year. Inflation rose slightly at the end of the year, and remains above its target rate, but is expected to resume its gradual decline over the coming months. In these circumstances we took the decision on the Governing Council to leave the ECB’s key interest rates unchanged.

Press release after the Meeting of the Governing Board of the Bank of Slovenia- 10 December 2013

Macroeconomic Projections for Slovenia, June 2019

Economic growth to slow slightly this year and next year, but to remain higher than euro area average.

Governor’s statement following the ECB’ monetary policy meeting

The Governing Council of the ECB has taken a number of steps to provide monetary policy stimulus over the course of the year, and yesterday our assessment was that these were still providing sufficient support for the euro area economy even in the adverse situation. We will examine the situation again at the December meeting, when new economic projections will be ready, and will adjust our measures as circumstances dictate.

Sharp decline in economic activity this year, 3.1% growth next year

Banka Slovenije is forecasting Slovenia to record a sharp decline in economic activity this year (of 7.6%) as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, before a recovery next year (with growth of 3.1%). In the macroeconomic projections released today, we emphasise that the realisation of this forecast will primarily depend on the success of the rollout of the vaccine. The economic contraction has been profoundly mitigated by economic policy stimulus measures, without which this year’s decline in economic activity would be a third larger.

Governor’s statement following the meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB

The economic picture in the euro area improved sharply in the second quarter of this year. The health situation, the vaccine rollout and the easing of containment measures have given rise to a broad-based recovery. The Governing Council assesses these developments as on track with our forecasts, while the risks remain evenly balanced. The situation on the financial markets remains stable, amid significant monetary policy support.

Article by Governor Boštjan Vasle in Eurofi magazine

Transition from crisis mode to a gradual normalisation of monetary policy

Keynote speech by Tina Žumer, Deputy Governor of Banka Slovenije, at the Government Borrowers Forum 2022

The event was hosted by the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Slovenia.

Lower growth in economic activity next year; high inflation to persist

Following a strong post-pandemic recovery, economic growth will remain high this year at 5%. Economic growth is expected to slow to 0.8% next year, primarily due to significantly lower growth in private consumption and a drop in private investment. Growth will rebound and exceed 2% in 2024 and 2025 in the context of the expected stabilisation of conditions in international environment. The pace of economic growth is also reflected in labour market projections.

This year and coming years see more moderate economic growth, inflation gradually easing

Following high economic activity in the past year, in the 2023–2025 period we anticipate more moderate economic growth at a rate of around 2 percent. Accompanied by further growth in employment, it will continue to be based on domestic spending, which will keep inflation at an elevated level, despite the reduction in external supply pressures. In the coming two years, however, inflation will in fact gradually decrease and approach the inflation target. With inflation the risks for the forecast playing out are mainly directed upwards, while in economic growth the risks are principally that it will be lower than the main forecast.

Economy slows as expected in recent months, but core inflation remains high

Signs of a slowdown in economic activity were prevalent in the euro area at the end of the second quarter. Similarly, while the economic picture in Slovenia varies considerably from sector to sector, the indicators and nowcasts point to a slowdown in activity relative to the previous quarter. As in the euro area overall, inflation in Slovenia is gradually slowing, but core inflation remains high.

Moderate growth in economic activity over the years ahead; inflation to gradually ease

After the strong post-pandemic recovery of recent years, the significant decline in international trade and cooling domestic demand are driving a slowdown in this year’s GDP growth in Slovenia to 1.3%. Economic growth will stabilise at over 2% in the next few years. Inflation will gradually ease over the projection horizon, but will remain above the monetary policy target level, and will continue to exceed the euro area average, despite closing the gap. The tight labour market will see employment growth slow, while wage growth will remain high, outpacing growth in productivity.

Moderate economic growth continues in first quarter; fall in inflation comes to temporary halt

Current indicators point to stagnation in economic activity in the euro area in the first quarter of this year, while inflation is gradually slowing. The economic situation in Slovenia remained relatively favourable during this period, although the fall in inflation came to a temporary halt. The labour market remained robust, with a low unemployment rate and high wage growth.

Gradual strengthening of economic growth and slowdown in inflation over this year and next two years

After being rather subdued last year, economic growth is expected to gradually strengthen over this year and the next two years to approach its long-term average. Inflation will gradually fall over this period, approaching the price stability target. The labour market will continue to see rising employment and record low unemployment, while wage growth will gradually slow but will remain relatively high.

Stress tests: Slovenian banking system remains stable and resilient to potential exogenous shocks

Stress tests show that the Slovenian banking system remains stable, and resilient to potential shocks. These indications came from the micro stress tests conducted under the aegis of the ECB, which on this occasion focused on cyber resilience, and also from the macro stress tests, which examine the banking system’s general resilience and capital adequacy.

Inflation continues to fall as the economy remains sluggish

Slovenia and the euro area overall both saw relatively modest economic growth in the second quarter. Meanwhile wage growth remains high in the tight labour market. Inflation continued to fall in August, and remains lower in Slovenia than in the euro area overall.

Domestic economy continues to see slow growth

The latest data for the third quarter shows a continuation of subdued economic growth in Slovenia, amid a moderate contraction in the euro area economy. Headline inflation is continuing to fall, with the rate in Slovenia remaining below that in the euro area overall, while the labour market is continuing to see wage growth close to its record high.

A lengthy recovery for certain sectors, but opportunities beckon for some

The global economy is in shock, and this is being reflected in record falls in numerous economic indicators. Everything therefore points to a significant recession in the first half of 2020. The Slovenian economy too is facing a major crisis. Moving into the second quarter, some indicators hit their record lows. There was also a severe downturn in the labour market.

Economic growth to remain high next year, while inflation will gradually ease

Banka Slovenije has today released its new economic projections. The key finding is that the high economic growth seen this year (6.7%) will continue next year (4.0%). Economic activity will remain broadly based, driven by domestic demand and corporate exports. Consumer price inflation will remain elevated toward the end of this year and in the early part of next year, but is then expected to gradually ease over the course of the year (it is forecast to average 3.8% over 2022).

Introductory address at the Banking Summit by Primož Dolenc, deputy-governor of Banka Slovenije

Deputy-governor Primož Dolenc presented the measures taken by the Banka Slovenje and the ECB to eliminate the consequences of the Covid-19 epidemic.

Keynote speech by Primož Dolenc at ACI Slovenia Annual Assembly