Press release - Economic and financial developments, July 2016; Summary of macroeconomic developments, July 2016
Growth in the majority of major global economies was stable during the first quarter, including in the euro area where private consumption is contributing decisively to growth. Forecasts of global economic growth and trade have nevertheless been cut further, but for the moment without impacting the forecast of aggregate growth in Slovenia’s trading partners for this year. Following previous cuts, the latter was raised to 1.8% in June, comparable with the forecast from the beginning of the year. That forecast does not, however, take yet account of the potential effects of Brexit, which are expected
to be negative for the United Kingdom due to the previously identified slowdown in investment. However, shifts on the financial markets at the end of June and beginning of July have already proven that the initial responses to Brexit were likely exaggerated, and that it is too early for realistic assessments of Brexit’s impact on economic activity.
Economic growth in Slovenia remained well above the European average during the first quarter. The only major limiting factor was a decline in construction investment due to a major slowdown in general government infrastructure investment; in the absence of the aforementioned factor, economic growth would have even accelerated. Contributing most to the latter were manufacturing segments, which recorded sharp growth in output relative to the final quarter of last year.
We also find that the majority of other economic sectors are also becoming more active on the foreign market, an indication of the increasing export orientation of the economy as a whole. Growth in private consumption was below expectations during the first quarter; growth was down considerably but more than likely only temporarily, as the situation on the labour market continues to improve. Activity and confidence indicators also point to continued solid economic growth in the second quarter.